Predictions: Update

I was asked for a specific prediction on the 2016 US election, to provide a clear benchmark to measure against. Fair enough. Here’s my stake in the ground:

Democrat: 333 electoral votes
Republican: 205 electoral votes

This was arrived at with a sophisticated system of intuition-seeded random-ass guess, so I’m not interested in debating details. Honestly, I just want this whole thing to be over so we can get on with our lives.

“And how does this election affect you, an expat American in Canada?” A lot more than you think. There’s an awful lot of discussion about closing borders, repealing NAFTA, changing overseas voting rights. It matters, guys.


Also, the climate thing. Let’s say 3 years as a benchmark for when we stop debating whether climate change exist and finally join forces trying to fix it.

By the way, the planet is also round.


I thought it might be interesting to record some things from time to time, to look back and see how things go. I wish I’d done this early in the blog, especially looking back 15 years. 

My assumptions about the next couple of years:

  • The headphone-less and feature-light state of the new iPhone 7 will give it one of the softest launches of any iPhone device. Future versions will revert back to that universally useful jack. 
  • After the successes in Washington and Colorado, along with Trudeau’s intentions for Canada, marijuana decriminalization will be widespread in North America within 5 years or so. 
  • Hillary Clinton will win the US election by a fairly broad margin. The defeat will create unrest within the Republican Party, causing a mild reboot, possibly after a split. 
  • Another round of formidable storms, along with demographic shifts, will finally close the door on climate denial being treated as a legitimate viewpoint. 
  • Renewable power sources will become not only cleaner and safer, but also cheaper than petroleum or coal-based power by 2020. 

I may add a few more as I think of them. Let’s see how we do.